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the-south-asian.com July / August 2006 |
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August/September Contents
Sufis - wisdom against 50
years of mountain Heritage cities:
Cotton - the fibre of
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Technology & Investment in U.S. Stock Markets the-south-asian Special Financial report Salman Minhas
First published March 2001 (The author has worked as an IT Specialist for 25 years, and has managed a micro technology investment fund.)
The recent U.S economic expansion, after slowing down over the last ten months, came to a complete halt in January 2001. This business cycle has come after the longest postwar [1990-2000] ten year growth at an average growth rate of 3 % and has led many economists and analysts to start posing questions of the prospects of a US Recession [there have been two consecutive quarters of zero growth].
Unique US Business Cycle Larry Summers, the outgoing US treasury secretary, argued in Switzerland in his February speech that the current US economic cycle might be different from previous post-war cycles. Typically excess demand causes inflation to take off, forcing interest rate rises from the Federal Reserve Bank, which squeezes demand. As inventories build up, firms cut production. The economy thus moves into a recession. This expansion, Summers argued, is more like that of Japan in late 1980’s – i.e. driven by credit. The absence of inflation has allowed the expansion to continue longer but at the cost of greater accumulation of debt.
The USA and the Japanese economic GDP's together comprise 40 % of the world's GDP. Because the Japanese economy is almost at a standstill [ until such time as the banking bad loans can be sorted out ], it is important to consider the similarities and differences between the US and Japanese economies. This will allow the assessment of how this risk of a recession in the US is to be measured accurately. In the table below are summarized the most important symptomatic areas of the financial and economic scenarios of Japan and the US; actually the same sort of situation gave rise to recessions in Britain and in Sweden during the 1980s.
From the above table there are notable differences and the fundamental ones that will perhaps not allow the US economy to suffer in the same long drawn out tortuous way as Japan’s economy - and the fact that US has a lot more proactive, balanced and transparent controls and policies.
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